A Typical Run
From a qualitative standpoint, a simulated epidemic started from one spot and then spread out across the grid, like a bacteria culture. Eventually it died out as there weren’t enough susceptible people nearby to infect, leaving some areas intact.
Numerically, the CA model in this work showed a slight peak in number of infected (red), while the number of recovered (green) followed a Logistic growth pattern. Hence, the CA model is in accordance with the traditional Kermack-McKendrick Model.
Verification with Novel H1N1 Surveillance Data
Additional Verification Details
- Progression of Epidemic Over Time (pdf)
- Effect of Adjusting Grid Size (pdf)
- Effect of Adjusting Initial Location of Infected Cells (pdf)
Design of Containment Strategies
- Influence of Quarantine (pdf)
- Comparison of Quarantine Strategies (pdf)
- Influence of Vaccination (pdf)