Susceptible
Infected
Recovered
Cellular
Automata
The Basics
A Typical Run
From a qualitative standpoint, a simulated epidemic started from one spot and then spread out across the grid, like a bacteria culture. Eventually it died out as there weren’t enough susceptible people nearby to infect, leaving some areas intact.

Numerically, the CA model in this work showed a slight peak in number of infected (red), while the number of recovered (green) followed a Logistic growth pattern. Hence, the CA model is in accordance with the traditional Kermack-McKendrick Model.
The paper
Designing Epidemic Containment Strategies with a Spatial Stochastic Method (pdf)
Verification with Novel H1N1 Surveillance Data

Additional Verification Details
- Progression of Epidemic Over Time (pdf)
- Effect of Adjusting Grid Size (pdf)
- Effect of Adjusting Initial Location of Infected Cells (pdf)
Design of Containment Strategies
- Influence of Quarantine (pdf)
- Comparison of Quarantine Strategies (pdf)
- Influence of Vaccination (pdf)
Datsets
- Typical Run Values (xls)
- Winnebago County Simulations (xls) / Infection Rate Search (xls)
- Simulation for Illinois State (xls)
- Influence of Quarantine (xls)
- Comparison of Quarantine Strategies (xls)
- Influence of Vaccination (xls)